A Roundup of 2026 Tech Predictions

Something to read on your Uber home from the party.

Author

Rachel Braun
January 01, 2026

Happy New Year! Happy New Year! Happy New Year! Happy New Year! Happy New Year! Happy New Year!

And happy first day of Dry January to who celebrate.

I have some bad news for the people dreaming of a year with “no more AI” on the New Year’s Eve Wishing Wall.

As we head into 2026, I spent time reviewing prediction reports, essays, podcasts, and listicles to understand what people actually think will happen next. Unsurprisingly, much of it focused on AI and related topics.

One major takeaway is that we still have not agreed on what it actually means for AGI to be “here.” What is the threshold? How do we define the moment when AGI has truly arrived?

Another takeaway is that AI is likely to be deployed and evaluated very differently than it is today. As AI becomes more deeply integrated into real workflows, the bar for reliability and accountability rises. Novelty and demos are no longer enough. This shift creates room for smaller, more specialized models to matter.

Below is a quick glance at how different parts of the tech ecosystem are thinking about 2026. While the specific predictions vary (trigger warning: foldable phones are mentioned), they all point to a broader shift in how AI progress is measured.

Feel free to get off your phone and check this all out on Monday. Go chug some water, enjoy the New Year!

  1. Big Tech won’t control AI models anymore

  2. Companies build and customize their own models

  3. AI agents start working together via shared standards

  4. Generic “AI slop” loses; thoughtful human-led work wins

  5. AI products improve by learning from user feedback

  6. Businesses demand proven accuracy before scaling AI

  7. Ideas matter more than execution

  8. Employees drive AI adoption from the bottom up

  1. Siri finally gets better

  2. Home robots start limited trials

  3. Foldable iPhone launches

  4. AI-powered malware gets much more dangerous

  5. AI moves beyond chatbots to new model types

  6. Satellite internet gets real competition

  7. Digital IDs become common

  8. Early mind-reading tech appears

  9. Self-driving cars spread to more cities (and face more scrutiny)

  10. DIY, AI-assisted healthcare grows

  11. AI mental-health risks force regulation

  12. EV supercars arrive

  1. Disinformation campaigns target data center expansion

  2. Robots dominate tech demos, not real homes yet

  3. AI bubble cools and layoffs begin

  4. Workers are monitored to train AI agents

  5. Always-on AI tools trigger privacy backlash

  6. Robotaxis expand widely without major disasters

  1. AI moves into the physical world (robots, factories)

  2. AI agents don’t scale unless processes are redesigned

  3. AI infrastructure gets rebuilt for cost and scale

  4. Tech orgs restructure around human + AI teams

  5. AI becomes both a cyber risk and a cyber defense tool

  6. Fewer pilots, more real business impact

  1. ChatGPT reaches 1 billion users

  2. Apple has a standout year

  3. No AI hardware device breaks through

  4. Amazon integrates shopping into chatbots

  5. Anthropic files for an IPO

  6. People openly form relationships with AI

  7. Cheaper AI models disrupt the AI buildout

  1. No AGI in 2026

  2. Less hype, more evaluation of what AI actually works

  3. Countries push for “AI sovereignty” (local models, local data)

  4. More failed AI projects get admitted publicly

  5. Smaller, better models matter more than giant ones

  6. AI video becomes useful enough for real work (plus more copyright fights)

  7. Science demands explainable AI, not black boxes

  8. Medical AI has a “ChatGPT moment” with real diagnostic impact

  9. Legal AI focuses on ROI, accuracy, and harder tasks

  10. The AI bubble doesn’t pop, but stops inflating

  11. AI’s job impact gets tracked with real dashboards

  12. GenAI tools go straight to users, bypassing institutions

  13. More concern about long-term human impact and well-being

  1. Apple makes a foldable iPhone

  2. EVs rebound a bit

  3. GTA 6 is huge

  4. Platforms label/filter AI “slop”

  5. A new creator platform tries to compete

  6. A self-driving crash forces a big debate

  7. OpenAI collapses

  8. Siri gets genuinely good

  9. Apple has a bad year reputation-wise

  10. The AI hype cools off

  1. In 2026, AI advances will come more from people using it better than from new model breakthroughs.

  1. AI-generated video becomes dramatically more realistic and consistent

  2. AI use becomes mandatory at work, with higher productivity expectations

  3. AI reliability improves (fewer hallucinations), but full trust is still not there

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